Political Commentator Diagnoses The UDP Controversy! By Alagie Saidy-Barrow If you are familiar with Game Theory in any of the social sciences, then you may have heard about the “prisoner’s dilemma”. The prisoner’s dilemma is a “concept” in game theory that provides a “foundation” on why two or more rational individuals or organisations, etc., would choose to cooperate or compete against one another. In its simplified form, the prisoner’s dilemma refers to two individuals, let’s say in this case, Kenbugul and Terrenna, who are both in remand at Mile Two, charged with kidnapping a Badibunka. If Kenbugul and Terrenna both refuse to cooperate with Police Prosecutor Ceesay Chopsa, then Kenbugul and Terrenna will only serve ONE YEAR EACH in Mile Two for the lesser charge of “hanging out” with a Badibunka, which is a simple misdemeanour in Kiang. However, if Kenbugul betrays Terrenna and cooperates with Prosecutor Ceesay Chopsa, then Kenbugul will not serve any time, and Terrenna will serve FIVE YEARS in Mile Two. Similarly, if Terrenna betrays Kenbugul, Terrenna will not serve any prison time, and KENBUGUL WILL SERVE five years in Mile Two. If they both cooperate with Prosecutor Ceesay by betraying one another, they will each serve THREE YEARS for their participation in the kidnapping of the Badibunka. Ordinarily, one may think Kenbugul and Terrenna will cooperate and look out for their mutual welfare by not cooperating with the prosecutor. You’d think they have a common interest in not implicating one another. The bummer is Terrenna and Kenbugul cannot communicate at all, and so neither one knows what the other will do. Hence the dilemma. To cooperate or not! What would you do if you were Kenbugul or Terrenna? In game theory, the prisoner’s dilemma is what “social scientists use to investigate and model” Kenbugul and Terrenna’s decision-making process to cooperate or compete. Understanding why two “rational” individuals, factions, camps, groups or organisations may not cooperate or collaborate on an issue regardless of how it affects society is essential to understanding the political landscape of Gambian politics. You don’t have to be a political scientist to acknowledge that the UDP and its supporters will play a significant role if we are to see the backs of the NPP/APRC cabal. But you also do not have to be a card-carrying member of the UDP to know that despite the denials or blame-shifting by some of the leadership in the party, all is not well within the party. Some in the UDP are faced with a prisoner’s dilemma within the party: Cooperate with the known by remaining with the tried and tested or spring forth into the unknown with the new and untested. Some want to stay with the existing one because they think it serves their interest, while others want to spring forth into the future because that is what serves their interest. I am sure some only see the people\

2024-04-16 19:31:00